banner5.jpg


#1 - WHAT HAPPENS IF NAFTA GOES AWAY?

Report roundup: While everyone has an opinion on who wins or loses under a NAFTA withdrawal, more than a few organizations in DC have taken a shot at crunching the numbers. Here are 8 different looks at NAFTA's current impact and a world without it:

Chamber of Commerce: Which States Would Be Hit Hardest by Withdrawing From NAFTA?
Peterson Institute: The End of NAFTA: What Policymakers Should Know
Congressional Research Service: State Exports to NAFTA Countries for 2016
BMO Capital Markets Economics: The Day After NAFTA: Economic Impact Analysis
Atlantic Council: What if NAFTA Ended?
ImpactEcon: Reversing NAFTA: A Supply Chain Perspective
American Farm Bureau: Importance of NAFTA to Agriculture in Each State for 201
Business Roundtable: NAFTA State Fact Sheets

#2 - THE NEXT ROUND OF NAFTA MEETINGS

With tax reform taking center stage, it was a slow trade week. That has trade watchers looking to the next NAFTA talks, which will take place in Washington D.C. from December 11th to December 15th. NAFTA negotiatiors have been clear though that this is not an official negotiatiang round and instead an "intersessional" discussion.

Despite expectations being lowered, Reuters reported last week that Mexico's Economy Minister Ildefanso Guajardo has said that some of the less controversial chapters, including the Commerce, Telecommunications, Technical Barriers to Trade, and Regulatory Practices chapters could be closed out at the D.C. mini-round.

#3 - SIREN TWEET OF THE WEEK: MORAN ON WITHDRAWAL

Inside US Trade posted the tweet/story below last week after they noticed a radio interview in which U.S. Senator Jerry Moran (R-Kansas) said: "Every indication seems to me to be that the administration is going to terminate NAFTA, then indicate that they have six months before it actually expires to get a better deal. In other words, using it as leverage.”


#4 –AUTOMAKERS CONFRONT PENCE ON NAFTA RULES OF ORIGIN

Executives from the Big Three automakers vented their frustrations last week with the U.S. position on auto rules of origin in NAFTA discussions. In a White House meeting, Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council said the executives were able to "directly address the industry’s concerns with the administration’s rule of origin proposals.”

Here is the statement from Blunt and a report from Bloomberg on the meeting.

#5 - CANADA & CHINA: WILL THEY OR WON'T THEY LAUNCH A TRADE DEAL?

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau travels to China this week with the decision on whether to launch trade agreement talks looming over the trip. Canadian officials have continued to say that no decision has been made.

Trudeau is boxed in because launching a trade agreement would be a tough sell at home, BUT Canada has to look for options to for other export markets in case NAFTA falls apart. While Canada continues to be coy about the announcement, it is widely expected that the two countries will annouce talks this week. The Globe and Mail's lead trade watcher Steven Chase has more HERE.

#6 - THE NAFTA VIEW FROM CANADA: U.S. APPROACH IS "TAKE, TAKE, TAKE"

Canada's Ambassador to the U.S., David MacNaughton sat down last week with POLITICO's Doug Palmer and DID NOT hold back about Canada's frustration with NAFTA talks. Here are a few of the hottest quotes:

“I have not seen, on some of the key items, an articulation of how this is actually going to work to the benefit of all three parties, or two of the three parties, or anything other than, ‘We believe that this is what we need to create jobs in America and if it’s at your cost, then so be it.' That’s not a trade negotiation.”

"I don’t know why somebody would single us out as being non-constructive when the people who are actually creating jobs in the United States are saying this would have the effect of destroying job creation."

#7 – THE NAFTA VIEW FROM MEXICO: U.S. AUTO DEMANDS ARE "NOT VIABLE"

Mexico's Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo didn't mince words either in responding to U.S. proposals that requiring 50% of auto content to be produced in the U.S.; “I was clear that the domestic content (requirement) is something that is not viable at this point," Guarjardo said in Washington D.C. last week. More from Fortune on Mexico's lead trade official's views on auto talks in NAFTA renegotiations HERE.


Prepared by Matt McAlvanah (matt@monumentpolicy.com) and the Monument Trade Team

Interested in receiving Monument's Week in Trade in your inbox on Mondays? Sign up below for your weekly dose of trade insights!